Mega Millions: Current Matrix and Exact Odds
This reviewed base format is five distinct numbers from 70 plus one Mega Ball from 24. The old LottoFlick configuration used a 25-number Mega Ball pool. A change to a pool changes the sample space even when the five-number main selection stays the same.
- Review jurisdiction
- United States base game; price reviewed for Florida
- Base number format
- 5 from 70 + 1 from 24 in a separate pool
- Official jackpot odds
- 1 in 290,472,336
- Draw days
- Tuesday, Friday
- Base price
- USD 5
- Price scope
- Florida base play; includes the built-in multiplier. Not a separate Megaplier purchase.
- Last reviewed
How the jackpot odds are calculated
C(70,5) × C(24,1) = 290,472,336. With uniform unordered selections and independent separate pools where applicable, one exact ticket has probability 1/290,472,336. The exact BigInt count matches the reviewed official jackpot denominator.
Static result: 1 in 290,472,336; official match.
Reproduce the matrix change
C(70,5) is 12,103,014. Multiplying by the former pool of 25 gives 302,575,350; multiplying by the reviewed pool of 24 gives 290,472,336. The latter matches the current official rule denominator. This comparison explains a data correction, rather than a strategy for choosing a better ticket.
The reviewed Florida USD 5 base play includes its multiplier. That feature affects non-jackpot payouts; it is not an extra player-selected ball in the jackpot count. The registry deliberately keeps prize amounts, taxes and claim rules outside the verified calculation scope.
Mega Millions: the numbers behind the odds
- Ticket format
- 5 of 70 + 1 of 24
- Calculated vs official odds
- Calculated 1 in 290,472,336 (≈ 3.442 × 10^-9). Official 1 in 290,472,336 (Mega Millions game rules, reviewed 2026-10-14). Equal.
- Official odds of any prize
- 1 in 23.0737 (Mega Millions game rules, reviewed 2026-10-14). Published approximate figure for winning a prize of any tier, not the jackpot chance.
- 1,000 distinct tickets
- cover 1,000 of 290,472,336 outcomes (about 1 in 290,472); duplicates add nothing.
- One-number neighbours
- 325 tickets (5 × 65: choose which of your 5 main numbers to replace, and which of the 65 unused numbers replaces it) differ from yours in exactly one main number, other pools unchanged. With yours they cover 326 of 290,472,336 outcomes (about 1 in 891,019). This counts ticket combinations; a different ticket is not a likelier one.
- One fixed ticket, 1,000,000 independent draws
- expected jackpot hits 0.00344 (1,000,000 ÷ 290,472,336); chance of at least one hit 0.344% (1 − (1 − 1/290,472,336)^1,000,000). Exact calculation, not a played or simulated result.
Calculated values assume equally likely combinations, drawing without replacement and independent pools; prizes, taxes, ticket costs and rule changes are not modelled. None of this predicts real draws or recommends buying tickets.
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What understanding the odds can and cannot do
Balanced selections, birthdays and past draw frequencies do not improve the jackpot chance of a particular valid ticket. LottoFlick does not predict winning numbers. Use the combination calculator to explore models and the Explorer to compare field scopes.
Official evidence and limits
- Mega Millions — game information — Florida Lottery; verified fields: name, country, jurisdiction, mainPick, mainPool, bonusPick, bonusPool, ticketPrice, currency, drawSchedule, drawTime, drawTimezone; reviewed 2026-10-14.
- Mega Millions game rules — Florida Lottery; verified fields: jackpotOdds, overallOdds; reviewed 2026-10-14.
Verified status applies to the stated base format and sourced fields. Claim deadlines, taxes, additional products and live jackpot amounts are not verified here. Check the responsible operator before purchasing or claiming a ticket.
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