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Learn: probability, lotteries and fair play
LottoFlick explains chance and probability accurately. These articles cover how lotteries work, why common beliefs about numbers fail, how everyday probability behaves, and how prizes are taxed. None of them predicts a draw.
Latest articles
- "Auto Wins More Often": What That Lotto Statistic Really Means
About two thirds of Lotto 6/45 first-prize winners used auto picks. Why that does not make auto better, with a simulation where every game has identical odds. - What a Positive Test Really Means: Bayes' Theorem and False Positives
A test that is 90% accurate can still mean only an 8% chance you have the condition. A worked example with invented numbers, natural frequencies and a calculator. Not medical advice. - Why Big Numbers Blur Our Judgement: Eight Million, in Human Units
Eight million feels like 'a lot' and two billion like 'a lot more'. Translating 8,145,060 into days, years and money, and a look at anchoring, shows how scale slips past intuition. - The Birthday-Number Trap: Same Odds, Different Split Risk
Birthdays only cover 1–31, about 9% of all Lotto 6/45 combinations. A transparent what-if table shows how clustering on them would change a winner's share, without changing the odds. - The Birthday Problem: 23 People and a Coin-Flip Chance of a Shared Birthday
Among 23 people there is a 50.7% chance two share a birthday. Why it feels wrong, the exact calculation, a simulator, and the same maths applied to lottery tickets. - How a Lottery Draw Is Kept Fair: Machines, Observers and What Data Can Check
Ball checks, observers, backup machines and live broadcast in the Korean Lotto draw, as reported in the press, plus what public results can and cannot show about fairness, with the round 1057 case. - EuroMillions: Lucky Stars, 13 Prize Tiers and Exact Odds
Five numbers from 50 plus two Lucky Stars from 12 give 139,838,160 combinations. Exact odds for all 13 tiers, why any prize is about 1 in 13, and what may change in autumn 2026. - The Gambler's Fallacy: Why It Is Never 'Due'
After five heads in a row, is tails more likely? A coin-flip experiment, exact run probabilities and Lotto 6/45 draw history show why independent draws have no memory.
The math of lotteries
- How Many Lotto 6/45 Jackpot Winners Should Each Round Have?
1,160 Korean Lotto 6/45 rounds compared with what ticket sales imply: first-prize winner counts match on average but scatter far more than chance alone allows. - Same Odds, Different Split Risk: Auto vs Manual Lotto 6/45 Winners
Every Lotto 6/45 ticket has the same jackpot odds, but not every combination is shared equally. What auto, manual and semi-auto winner shares do and do not show.
Myths, corrected
- Hot and Cold Lottery Numbers: Does Frequency Mean Anything?
Number 34 has appeared 187 times in 1,247 Lotto 6/45 draws and 9 only 137 times. We test whether that gap is real and whether recent frequency predicts the next draw. - The Gambler's Fallacy: Why It Is Never 'Due'
After five heads in a row, is tails more likely? A coin-flip experiment, exact run probabilities and Lotto 6/45 draw history show why independent draws have no memory. - "Auto Wins More Often": What That Lotto Statistic Really Means
About two thirds of Lotto 6/45 first-prize winners used auto picks. Why that does not make auto better, with a simulation where every game has identical odds. - The Birthday-Number Trap: Same Odds, Different Split Risk
Birthdays only cover 1–31, about 9% of all Lotto 6/45 combinations. A transparent what-if table shows how clustering on them would change a winner's share, without changing the odds. - Is There a "Lucky Store"? Sales Volume and Jackpot Counts
A store that has sold many first-prize tickets is not evidence of better luck. A simulation with identical odds shows why some stores always lead, and what data a real test would need. - Lottery Myths, Corrected: A Five-Part Series
Hot and cold numbers, the gambler's fallacy, auto versus manual picks, birthday numbers and lucky stores: five common lottery beliefs checked against real Lotto 6/45 data and simulations.
Everyday probability
- The Birthday Problem: 23 People and a Coin-Flip Chance of a Shared Birthday
Among 23 people there is a 50.7% chance two share a birthday. Why it feels wrong, the exact calculation, a simulator, and the same maths applied to lottery tickets. - The Monty Hall Problem: Why Switching Wins Two Times in Three
Three doors, one car, and a host who opens a goat door. Why switching wins 2/3 of the time, which assumptions that depends on, and a simulator you can run. - What a 60% Chance of Rain Means (and What It Does Not)
Not 60% of the area, not 60% of the day, not a heavy shower. The Korea Meteorological Administration's definition of rain probability, how to read it, and an umbrella decision calculator. - What a Positive Test Really Means: Bayes' Theorem and False Positives
A test that is 90% accurate can still mean only an 8% chance you have the condition. A worked example with invented numbers, natural frequencies and a calculator. Not medical advice. - Loot Box Odds, Calculated: Expected Tries, Pity Counters and "1% Times 100"
A 1% drop rate does not guarantee a drop in 100 tries: it is 63.4%. Expected tries, how a guarantee changes them, collecting a full set, and Korea's probability-disclosure rules as written in law.
Tax
- Tax on Raffle and Event Prizes in Korea: The 22% Structure and Prizes in Kind
How a raffle or event prize is taxed in Korea: other income, KRW 50,000 tax minimum, 20% plus 2% local tax, who withholds, how in-kind prizes are valued, and how it differs from lottery prizes. - Tax on TV, Quiz and Contest Prizes in Korea: Other Income, Deemed Expenses and the Tax Minimum
A contest or quiz prize can be taxed on only 20% of its value if the 80% deemed expense applies, which turns 22% withholding into about 4.4%. Conditions, KRW 50,000 minimum, examples and a calculator. - Overseas Lottery or Prize Wins and Korean Tax: What a Korean Resident Must Report
A Korean resident's foreign lottery or prize win is other income with no Korean withholding, so it joins comprehensive income, with a foreign tax credit. What was verified and what was not.
Randomness and fairness
- How Computers Make Random Numbers: Pseudo-Random, Secure and What LottoFlick Uses
A computer follows rules, so how does it produce chance? Pseudo-random formulas, secure sources, modulo bias, and how this site's generator and Lab pick numbers, from the code. - How a Lottery Draw Is Kept Fair: Machines, Observers and What Data Can Check
Ball checks, observers, backup machines and live broadcast in the Korean Lotto draw, as reported in the press, plus what public results can and cannot show about fairness, with the round 1057 case. - Are Shuffles, Drawing Lots and Ladder Games Really Fair?
A naive shuffle gives some orders 5/27 and others 4/27; drawing lots is fair in any order; a ladder game with few rungs is far from fair. Exact numbers and two simulators.
Behavioral economics
- Why Do People Buy Lottery Tickets With Negative Expected Value?
A KRW 1,000 Lotto 6/45 game returns KRW 500 on average, before tax. We work out where that KRW 500 goes and what economics and psychology say about why people buy anyway. - Probability Illusions: The Hot Hand, Ignoring Size and Vivid Wins
Three ways intuition misreads probability: seeing streaks in random data, treating all small chances as alike, and judging odds by what comes to mind. With lottery numbers. - Why Big Numbers Blur Our Judgement: Eight Million, in Human Units
Eight million feels like 'a lot' and two billion like 'a lot more'. Translating 8,145,060 into days, years and money, and a look at anchoring, shows how scale slips past intuition.
Systems and history
- A History of Korean Lotteries: From Housing Lottery to Lotto 6/45
From the 1969 Housing Lottery and the Olympic Lottery to Lotto 6/45 in 2002 and the pension lottery in 2011, with the KRW 2,000 to KRW 1,000 price change that splits the Lotto data. - Where Does Korean Lottery Money Go? Allocation and Lotto 6/45 Sales by Year
Of every KRW 1,000 game, KRW 500 is prizes, 436 the Lottery Fund, 54 retailer commission and 10 operating costs. Lotto 6/45 sales by year, and what we could and could not verify. - How Lottery Sales Are Split: Korea and Japan Compared, and Why Others Are Hard
Korea returns 50% of Lotto sales as prizes; Tokyo's lottery document shows 46.5% for Japan. A careful comparison of what each country's split counts, and which countries we could not verify.
Game guides
- Pension Lottery 720+ (Korea): Digit-Matching Odds and Why 75% Is Not 60.3%
Korea's Pension Lottery 720+ pays monthly for years. How its group-and-six-digit ticket works, the odds of eight prizes, and why a stated 75% payout and 60.3% allocation can both hold. - EuroMillions: Lucky Stars, 13 Prize Tiers and Exact Odds
Five numbers from 50 plus two Lucky Stars from 12 give 139,838,160 combinations. Exact odds for all 13 tiers, why any prize is about 1 in 13, and what may change in autumn 2026. - UK Lotto: The June 2026 Two-Round Format and What the 1-in-4.9 Claim Means
Since 10 June 2026 each GBP 2 UK Lotto line plays two rounds of six numbers from 59. We reproduce the operator's 1-in-4.9 chance of a prize from the tier counts, and list what is still unverified. - Japan's Loto 6: Carryover, the Bonus Number and an Implied Return of 45%
Loto 6 picks six of 43 (6,096,454 combinations) twice a week. Exact odds of tiers 1 to 5, how the bonus number and carryover work, and why the published prize amounts imply about 45% back. - Japan's Loto 7: Two Bonus Numbers, a JPY 700 Million Top Prize and the Tier-Six Puzzle
Loto 7 picks seven of 37 (10,295,472 combinations) every Friday. Exact odds of tiers 1 to 5, how two bonus numbers work, the 2025 prize revision, and why tier 6 is only partly pinned down. - SuperEnalotto (Italy): Six from 90, the Jolly and a 622-Million-to-One Jackpot
SuperEnalotto asks for six numbers from 90: 622,614,630 combinations. Exact odds of all six prize categories, how the Jolly works, the optional SuperStar, and what we could and could not verify.
Tools
- Lump Sum vs Annuity Calculator: Present Value of Powerball, Mega Millions and Pension Lottery Prizes
Powerball pays 30 annual payments rising 5% a year; the cash option is the pool. Calculator with your own discount rate, the implied rate (4.87% for Dec 2025) and Korea's pension lottery. - Rollover Ticket Expected Value Calculator: Jackpot, Sales, Tax and Shared Wins
Does a rolled-over jackpot lift a ticket's expected value above its price? A Poisson model with sales, tax and shared wins: Powerball can pass it before tax; Korean Lotto did not in history.