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Lotto 6/45 Draw 509: Winning Numbers and Probability Explained

Winning numbers and bonus number

  1. 12
  2. 25
  3. 29
  4. 35
  5. 42
  6. 43
  7. 24

The six winning numbers on 2012-09-01 were 12, 25, 29, 35, 42, 43 and the bonus number was 24. The bonus number only decides second prize, so it is left out of the number-feature calculations below.

First and second prize and the amount after tax

5 players won first prize, KRW 2,689,076,100 each (about KRW 2.69 billion). Applying the current tax rules, the amount after tax is about KRW 1,834,680,987 per winner. Second prize went to 34 players, KRW 65,908,728 each, about KRW 51,408,809 after tax.

Prize results of draw 509
PrizeWinnersPer winnerAfter tax (reference)
1st5KRW 2,689,076,100KRW 1,834,680,987
2nd34KRW 65,908,728KRW 51,408,809
3rd1,228KRW 1,824,835—
4th64,934KRW 50,000—
5th1,104,261KRW 5,000—

The after-tax figures apply the current rules (income tax withheld at 20%, 30% on the part above KRW 300 million, local income tax of 10% of that, nothing withheld at KRW 2 million or less) to this draw's prize with no purchase cost deducted. The rules in force at the time may have differed. The method is the same as in the prize tax calculator.

Sales in this draw were KRW 53,390,358,000. The five prize levels together paid KRW 26,695,179,632, which is 50.0% of sales. The share varies by draw, for example when a jackpot with no winner is carried to a later draw.

Was the number of first-prize winners ordinary?

53,390,358 games were sold in this draw. If every game were chosen independently at random, the expected number of first-prize winners would be 6.55 (games sold ÷ 8,145,060). The actual number was 5.

Comparison with the Poisson model
ExpectedActualP(X = 5)P(X ≤ 5)
6.55514.4%36.1%

5 winners is an ordinary result, close to what the model expects. A count of 5 or fewer has a probability of 36.1%, about once every 2.8 rounds.

The Poisson distribution is an approximation. In practice many people choose similar numbers, such as birthdays, so the real count varies more than the model says. The model probability is a yardstick only and says nothing about which numbers come up. See How many Lotto 6/45 jackpot winners should each round have? for the full explanation.

Cumulative comparison

Rounds 88 to 509 (422 rounds): the distribution of first-prize winner counts (bars) against the Poisson expectation for the same rounds (line).

First-prize winner counts versus the Poisson expectationBars are actual round counts; the line is the Poisson expectation: 0=3, 1=12, 2=25, 3=45, 4=54, 5=42, 6=67, 7=56, 8=39, 9=42, 10=12, 11=8, 12=5, 13=5, 14=2, 15=3, 16=1, 17=0, 18=0, 19=1, 20=0, 21=0, 22=0, 23=0, 24=0, 25=0, 26=0, 27=0, 28=0, 29=0, 30+=001734506705101520253030+First-prize winners in a round

The variance of the deviations measured in model standard deviations is 1.31 (1 under a Poisson model). The real counts varied more than the model, in line with the clustering of purchases described above.

Features of the six numbers and their exact probabilities

The probabilities below come from counting all 8,145,060 ways to draw six distinct numbers exactly (no approximation). "Probability of this outcome" is the share of all combinations that have the same feature as this draw.

Features of the numbers in draw 509
FeatureThis drawProbability of this outcome
Odd and even4 odd, 2 even25.1%
Low and high1 low (1–22), 5 high (23–45)9.09%
Neighbouring numbers1 neighbouring pair52.9%
Sum of the six186sum ≤ 186: 94.7%
sum ≥ 186: 5.72%
All six at most 31no (includes 32 or higher)91.0%

Every individual combination has the same 1 in 8,145,060 chance of being drawn. The shares above only show which shapes of combination are more numerous.

Context: how often each number was drawn

Appearances of each number from 1 to 45 among the six winning numbers (bonus excluded) over draws 1 to 509 (509 draws). If the draws are fully random, each number is expected 67.9 times with a standard deviation of about 7.7. The shaded band is the expectation plus or minus two standard deviations.

Appearances per number versus the theoretical expectationThe shaded band is the expectation plus or minus two standard deviations: 1=78, 2=65, 3=70, 4=73, 5=70, 6=60, 7=62, 8=68, 9=55, 10=70, 11=67, 12=62, 13=70, 14=73, 15=65, 16=62, 17=74, 18=70, 19=70, 20=84, 21=62, 22=64, 23=60, 24=68, 25=71, 26=70, 27=77, 28=57, 29=65, 30=65, 31=69, 32=59, 33=63, 34=81, 35=65, 36=71, 37=81, 38=58, 39=67, 40=86, 41=56, 42=66, 43=69, 44=64, 45=72022436586151015202530354045Number

Chi-square goodness-of-fit test: χ² = 33.1, 44 degrees of freedom, p-value = 0.886. The p-value is at least 0.05, so the differences between numbers are within random variation.

Why this result tells you nothing about the next draw

Each draw starts from scratch as an independent trial. The drawing machine does not remember earlier rounds, so the numbers, the odd-even split, the sum and the winner count of this draw have no influence on the next one, and this result tells you nothing about it. Every combination has the same 1 in 8,145,060 chance in every draw. The figures on this page explain a draw that has already happened.

Source and collection time

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