{
 "schema": "lottoflick-lotto645-winners-1",
 "generatedFrom": "official Lotto 6/45 round results collected by manual run (see docs/evidence/lotto645-winners.md); aggregates only",
 "generatedOn": "2026-10-25",
 "analysedRounds": {
  "from": 88,
  "to": 1247,
  "count": 1160
 },
 "excluded": {
  "rounds": "1-87",
  "count": 87,
  "reason": "Per-game price differed before round 88, so sales amount cannot be converted to a ticket count with the same rule"
 },
 "priceEvidence": {
  "observedOverExpected4and5": {
   "rounds1to87": 0.507,
   "rounds88on": 0.998,
   "rounds80to87": 0.492,
   "rounds88to95": 0.951
  }
 },
 "firstPrize": {
  "observed": 10387,
  "expected": 10394,
  "ratio": 0.9993,
  "zMean": 0.0045,
  "zVariance": 1.732,
  "roundsWithNoWinner": 3,
  "noWinnerRounds": [
   289,
   295,
   463
  ],
  "tail": [
   {
    "z": 2,
    "observed": 67,
    "expectedPoisson": 35.8
   },
   {
    "z": 3,
    "observed": 21,
    "expectedPoisson": 4.5
   },
   {
    "z": 4,
    "observed": 9,
    "expectedPoisson": 0.4
   }
  ]
 },
 "ranks": {
  "1": {
   "observed": 10387,
   "expected": 10394,
   "ratio": 0.9993,
   "zVariance": 1.732
  },
  "2": {
   "observed": 62552,
   "expected": 62363.8,
   "ratio": 1.003,
   "zVariance": 6.199
  },
  "3": {
   "observed": 2358322,
   "expected": 2369822.6,
   "ratio": 0.9951,
   "zVariance": 34.087
  },
  "4": {
   "observed": 115170500,
   "expected": 115528852.7,
   "ratio": 0.9969,
   "zVariance": 545.482
  },
  "5": {
   "observed": 1895661067,
   "expected": 1899807800.2,
   "ratio": 0.9978,
   "zVariance": 2990.579
  }
 },
 "histogram": [
  {
   "lo": null,
   "hi": -2,
   "observed": 21,
   "expectedPoisson": 13
  },
  {
   "lo": -2,
   "hi": -1.5,
   "observed": 79,
   "expectedPoisson": 51.3
  },
  {
   "lo": -1.5,
   "hi": -1,
   "observed": 152,
   "expectedPoisson": 122.2
  },
  {
   "lo": -1,
   "hi": -0.5,
   "observed": 185,
   "expectedPoisson": 191
  },
  {
   "lo": -0.5,
   "hi": 0,
   "observed": 191,
   "expectedPoisson": 231.8
  },
  {
   "lo": 0,
   "hi": 0.5,
   "observed": 182,
   "expectedPoisson": 209.3
  },
  {
   "lo": 0.5,
   "hi": 1,
   "observed": 153,
   "expectedPoisson": 158
  },
  {
   "lo": 1,
   "hi": 1.5,
   "observed": 66,
   "expectedPoisson": 95.4
  },
  {
   "lo": 1.5,
   "hi": 2,
   "observed": 64,
   "expectedPoisson": 52.1
  },
  {
   "lo": 2,
   "hi": 3,
   "observed": 46,
   "expectedPoisson": 31.3
  },
  {
   "lo": 3,
   "hi": 4,
   "observed": 12,
   "expectedPoisson": 4.1
  },
  {
   "lo": 4,
   "hi": 6,
   "observed": 6,
   "expectedPoisson": 0.4
  },
  {
   "lo": 6,
   "hi": null,
   "observed": 3,
   "expectedPoisson": 0
  }
 ],
 "scatterBins": [
  {
   "expectedFrom": 4,
   "expectedTo": 6,
   "rounds": 253,
   "meanExpected": 5.49,
   "meanObserved": 5.65,
   "p10": 2,
   "p50": 6,
   "p90": 9,
   "max": 19,
   "poissonSd": 2.34,
   "observedSd": 2.86
  },
  {
   "expectedFrom": 6,
   "expectedTo": 8,
   "rounds": 340,
   "meanExpected": 6.9,
   "meanObserved": 7.06,
   "p10": 3,
   "p50": 7,
   "p90": 11,
   "max": 30,
   "poissonSd": 2.63,
   "observedSd": 3.15
  },
  {
   "expectedFrom": 8,
   "expectedTo": 10,
   "rounds": 171,
   "meanExpected": 8.97,
   "meanObserved": 9,
   "p10": 4,
   "p50": 8,
   "p90": 15,
   "max": 21,
   "poissonSd": 2.99,
   "observedSd": 3.88
  },
  {
   "expectedFrom": 10,
   "expectedTo": 12,
   "rounds": 114,
   "meanExpected": 10.95,
   "meanObserved": 10.28,
   "p10": 6,
   "p50": 10,
   "p90": 16.700000000000003,
   "max": 21,
   "poissonSd": 3.31,
   "observedSd": 3.97
  },
  {
   "expectedFrom": 12,
   "expectedTo": 14,
   "rounds": 160,
   "meanExpected": 13.03,
   "meanObserved": 12.57,
   "p10": 7,
   "p50": 12,
   "p90": 17.099999999999994,
   "max": 63,
   "poissonSd": 3.61,
   "observedSd": 6.46
  },
  {
   "expectedFrom": 14,
   "expectedTo": 16,
   "rounds": 118,
   "meanExpected": 14.65,
   "meanObserved": 15.08,
   "p10": 10,
   "p50": 14,
   "p90": 22.299999999999997,
   "max": 36,
   "poissonSd": 3.83,
   "observedSd": 5.49
  },
  {
   "expectedFrom": 16,
   "expectedTo": 18,
   "rounds": 4,
   "meanExpected": 16.28,
   "meanObserved": 13.5,
   "p10": 10.6,
   "p50": 13,
   "p90": 16.8,
   "max": 18,
   "poissonSd": 4.04,
   "observedSd": 3.42
  }
 ],
 "yearly": [
  {
   "year": 2004,
   "rounds": 21,
   "observed": 129,
   "expected": 146.7,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 6.99,
   "zVariance": 1.51
  },
  {
   "year": 2005,
   "rounds": 53,
   "observed": 341,
   "expected": 337.9,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 6.38,
   "zVariance": 0.97
  },
  {
   "year": 2006,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 302,
   "expected": 303.4,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 5.84,
   "zVariance": 1.3
  },
  {
   "year": 2007,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 302,
   "expected": 278,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 5.35,
   "zVariance": 1.18
  },
  {
   "year": 2008,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 285,
   "expected": 278.5,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 5.35,
   "zVariance": 1.84
  },
  {
   "year": 2009,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 295,
   "expected": 288.4,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 5.55,
   "zVariance": 0.98
  },
  {
   "year": 2010,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 291,
   "expected": 297.2,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 5.72,
   "zVariance": 1.75
  },
  {
   "year": 2011,
   "rounds": 53,
   "observed": 366,
   "expected": 345.2,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 6.51,
   "zVariance": 1.27
  },
  {
   "year": 2012,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 346,
   "expected": 347.8,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 6.69,
   "zVariance": 1.19
  },
  {
   "year": 2013,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 403,
   "expected": 366.1,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 7.04,
   "zVariance": 2.77
  },
  {
   "year": 2014,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 391,
   "expected": 373.4,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 7.18,
   "zVariance": 1.35
  },
  {
   "year": 2015,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 393,
   "expected": 398.5,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 7.66,
   "zVariance": 1.06
  },
  {
   "year": 2016,
   "rounds": 53,
   "observed": 458,
   "expected": 441.9,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 8.34,
   "zVariance": 1.34
  },
  {
   "year": 2017,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 478,
   "expected": 465.9,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 8.96,
   "zVariance": 2.17
  },
  {
   "year": 2018,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 484,
   "expected": 486.3,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 9.35,
   "zVariance": 1.41
  },
  {
   "year": 2019,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 507,
   "expected": 528.9,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 10.17,
   "zVariance": 1.48
  },
  {
   "year": 2020,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 525,
   "expected": 578.1,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 11.12,
   "zVariance": 1.33
  },
  {
   "year": 2021,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 564,
   "expected": 628,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 12.08,
   "zVariance": 1.1
  },
  {
   "year": 2022,
   "rounds": 53,
   "observed": 668,
   "expected": 677.4,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 12.78,
   "zVariance": 3.79
  },
  {
   "year": 2023,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 646,
   "expected": 693.5,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 13.34,
   "zVariance": 1.36
  },
  {
   "year": 2024,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 763,
   "expected": 727.9,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 14,
   "zVariance": 4.69
  },
  {
   "year": 2025,
   "rounds": 52,
   "observed": 812,
   "expected": 761.2,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 14.64,
   "zVariance": 2.16
  },
  {
   "year": 2026,
   "rounds": 43,
   "observed": 638,
   "expected": 643.6,
   "meanExpectedPerRound": 14.97,
   "zVariance": 1.82
  }
 ],
 "outliers": [
  {
   "round": 1128,
   "date": "20240713",
   "observed": 63,
   "expected": 13.67,
   "z": 13.3,
   "numbers": [
    1,
    5,
    8,
    16,
    28,
    33
   ],
   "bonus": 45,
   "numbersAtMost31": 5,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    11,
    52,
    0
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 1019,
   "date": "20220611",
   "observed": 50,
   "expected": 12.62,
   "z": 10.5,
   "numbers": [
    1,
    4,
    13,
    17,
    34,
    39
   ],
   "bonus": 6,
   "numbersAtMost31": 4,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    6,
    42,
    2
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 546,
   "date": "20130518",
   "observed": 30,
   "expected": 6.96,
   "z": 8.7,
   "numbers": [
    8,
    17,
    20,
    27,
    37,
    43
   ],
   "bonus": 6,
   "numbersAtMost31": 4,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    3,
    27,
    0
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 1162,
   "date": "20250308",
   "observed": 36,
   "expected": 14.8,
   "z": 5.5,
   "numbers": [
    20,
    21,
    22,
    25,
    28,
    29
   ],
   "bonus": 6,
   "numbersAtMost31": 6,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    11,
    23,
    2
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 381,
   "date": "20100320",
   "observed": 19,
   "expected": 5.89,
   "z": 5.4,
   "numbers": [
    1,
    5,
    10,
    12,
    16,
    20
   ],
   "bonus": 11,
   "numbersAtMost31": 6,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    6,
    13,
    0
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 1152,
   "date": "20241228",
   "observed": 35,
   "expected": 14.82,
   "z": 5.2,
   "numbers": [
    30,
    31,
    32,
    35,
    36,
    37
   ],
   "bonus": 5,
   "numbersAtMost31": 2,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    12,
    22,
    1
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 1233,
   "date": "20260718",
   "observed": 31,
   "expected": 14.26,
   "z": 4.4,
   "numbers": [
    2,
    7,
    20,
    25,
    37,
    40
   ],
   "bonus": 29,
   "numbersAtMost31": 4,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    15,
    13,
    3
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 312,
   "date": "20081122",
   "observed": 15,
   "expected": 5.19,
   "z": 4.3,
   "numbers": [
    2,
    3,
    5,
    6,
    12,
    20
   ],
   "bonus": 25,
   "numbersAtMost31": 6,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    3,
    12,
    0
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 757,
   "date": "20170603",
   "observed": 21,
   "expected": 8.72,
   "z": 4.2,
   "numbers": [
    6,
    7,
    11,
    17,
    33,
    44
   ],
   "bonus": 1,
   "numbersAtMost31": 4,
   "autoManualSemi": [
    11,
    9,
    1
   ]
  },
  {
   "round": 196,
   "date": "20060902",
   "observed": 15,
   "expected": 5.62,
   "z": 4,
   "numbers": [
    35,
    36,
    37,
    41,
    44,
    45
   ],
   "bonus": 30,
   "numbersAtMost31": 0,
   "autoManualSemi": null
  }
 ],
 "calendarNumbers": {
  "byNumbersAtMost31": [
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 0,
    "rounds": 1,
    "observedOverExpected": 2.669
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 1,
    "rounds": 12,
    "observedOverExpected": 0.778
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 2,
    "rounds": 58,
    "observedOverExpected": 0.962
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 3,
    "rounds": 242,
    "observedOverExpected": 0.938
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 4,
    "rounds": 408,
    "observedOverExpected": 1.048
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 5,
    "rounds": 338,
    "observedOverExpected": 0.972
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 6,
    "rounds": 101,
    "observedOverExpected": 1.07
   }
  ],
  "byNumbersAtMost12": [
   {
    "numbersAtMost12": 0,
    "rounds": 174,
    "observedOverExpected": 0.922
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost12": 1,
    "rounds": 384,
    "observedOverExpected": 0.949
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost12": 2,
    "rounds": 410,
    "observedOverExpected": 1.034
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost12": 3,
    "rounds": 151,
    "observedOverExpected": 1.066
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost12": 4,
    "rounds": 36,
    "observedOverExpected": 1.188
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost12": 5,
    "rounds": 5,
    "observedOverExpected": 1.58
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost12": 6,
    "rounds": 0,
    "observedOverExpected": null
   }
  ],
  "hypergeometric": [
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 0,
    "probability": 0.00037
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 1,
    "probability": 0.00762
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 2,
    "probability": 0.05715
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 3,
    "probability": 0.20088
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 4,
    "probability": 0.35154
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 5,
    "probability": 0.29205
   },
   {
    "numbersAtMost31": 6,
    "probability": 0.0904
   }
  ],
  "permutationTest": {
   "groupHigh": "at least 5 of 6 numbers at most 31",
   "groupLow": "at most 3 of 6 numbers at most 31",
   "roundsHigh": 439,
   "roundsLow": 313,
   "ratioHigh": 0.995,
   "ratioLow": 0.94,
   "difference": 0.056,
   "permutations": 20000,
   "seed": 12345,
   "pOneSided": 0.0495
  }
 },
 "methods": {
  "mapping": {
   "winType1": "auto",
   "winType2": "manual",
   "winType3": "semi-auto",
   "winType0": "unclassified"
  },
  "range": {
   "from": 262,
   "rounds": 983
  },
  "total": {
   "rounds": 983,
   "winners": 9336,
   "auto": 6187,
   "manual": 2885,
   "semiAuto": 264,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "byWinnerCount": [
   {
    "winnersPerRound": "1",
    "rounds": 12,
    "winners": 12,
    "autoShare": 0.75,
    "manualShare": 0.25,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "winnersPerRound": "2-3",
    "rounds": 59,
    "winners": 162,
    "autoShare": 0.802,
    "manualShare": 0.191,
    "semiShare": 0.006
   },
   {
    "winnersPerRound": "4-7",
    "rounds": 314,
    "winners": 1800,
    "autoShare": 0.724,
    "manualShare": 0.258,
    "semiShare": 0.017
   },
   {
    "winnersPerRound": "8-15",
    "rounds": 492,
    "winners": 5253,
    "autoShare": 0.68,
    "manualShare": 0.291,
    "semiShare": 0.03
   },
   {
    "winnersPerRound": "16+",
    "rounds": 106,
    "winners": 2109,
    "autoShare": 0.557,
    "manualShare": 0.407,
    "semiShare": 0.036
   }
  ],
  "byYear": [
   {
    "year": 2007,
    "rounds": 4,
    "winners": 23,
    "autoShare": 0.826,
    "manualShare": 0.174,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "year": 2008,
    "rounds": 50,
    "winners": 285,
    "autoShare": 0.688,
    "manualShare": 0.312,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "year": 2009,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 295,
    "autoShare": 0.729,
    "manualShare": 0.271,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "year": 2010,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 291,
    "autoShare": 0.67,
    "manualShare": 0.33,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "year": 2011,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 366,
    "autoShare": 0.719,
    "manualShare": 0.281,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "year": 2012,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 346,
    "autoShare": 0.746,
    "manualShare": 0.254,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "year": 2013,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 403,
    "autoShare": 0.645,
    "manualShare": 0.355,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "year": 2014,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 391,
    "autoShare": 0.634,
    "manualShare": 0.366,
    "semiShare": 0
   },
   {
    "year": 2015,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 393,
    "autoShare": 0.628,
    "manualShare": 0.336,
    "semiShare": 0.036
   },
   {
    "year": 2016,
    "rounds": 53,
    "winners": 458,
    "autoShare": 0.635,
    "manualShare": 0.328,
    "semiShare": 0.037
   },
   {
    "year": 2017,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 478,
    "autoShare": 0.632,
    "manualShare": 0.328,
    "semiShare": 0.04
   },
   {
    "year": 2018,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 484,
    "autoShare": 0.61,
    "manualShare": 0.339,
    "semiShare": 0.052
   },
   {
    "year": 2019,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 507,
    "autoShare": 0.696,
    "manualShare": 0.266,
    "semiShare": 0.037
   },
   {
    "year": 2020,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 525,
    "autoShare": 0.655,
    "manualShare": 0.31,
    "semiShare": 0.034
   },
   {
    "year": 2021,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 564,
    "autoShare": 0.676,
    "manualShare": 0.284,
    "semiShare": 0.041
   },
   {
    "year": 2022,
    "rounds": 53,
    "winners": 668,
    "autoShare": 0.65,
    "manualShare": 0.325,
    "semiShare": 0.025
   },
   {
    "year": 2023,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 646,
    "autoShare": 0.711,
    "manualShare": 0.252,
    "semiShare": 0.037
   },
   {
    "year": 2024,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 763,
    "autoShare": 0.638,
    "manualShare": 0.328,
    "semiShare": 0.034
   },
   {
    "year": 2025,
    "rounds": 52,
    "winners": 812,
    "autoShare": 0.595,
    "manualShare": 0.361,
    "semiShare": 0.044
   },
   {
    "year": 2026,
    "rounds": 43,
    "winners": 638,
    "autoShare": 0.716,
    "manualShare": 0.243,
    "semiShare": 0.041
   }
  ]
 },
 "secondPrize": {
  "observed": 62552,
  "expected": 62363.8,
  "zVariance": 6.199,
  "top5": [
   {
    "round": 1057,
    "date": "20230304",
    "observed": 664,
    "expected": 82.9,
    "z": 63.8,
    "numbers": [
     8,
     13,
     19,
     27,
     40,
     45
    ],
    "bonus": 12
   },
   {
    "round": 1150,
    "date": "20241214",
    "observed": 226,
    "expected": 84.1,
    "z": 15.5,
    "numbers": [
     8,
     9,
     18,
     35,
     39,
     45
    ],
    "bonus": 25
   },
   {
    "round": 1075,
    "date": "20230708",
    "observed": 160,
    "expected": 77.8,
    "z": 9.3,
    "numbers": [
     1,
     23,
     24,
     35,
     44,
     45
    ],
    "bonus": 10
   },
   {
    "round": 1189,
    "date": "20250913",
    "observed": 167,
    "expected": 88,
    "z": 8.4,
    "numbers": [
     9,
     19,
     29,
     35,
     37,
     38
    ],
    "bonus": 31
   },
   {
    "round": 745,
    "date": "20170311",
    "observed": 110,
    "expected": 54.2,
    "z": 7.6,
    "numbers": [
     1,
     2,
     3,
     9,
     12,
     23
    ],
    "bonus": 10
   }
  ]
 },
 "dataQuality": {
  "flaggedRoundCounts": {
   "rank1-sum-field-mismatch": 332,
   "rank2-sum-field-mismatch": 466,
   "rank3-sum-field-mismatch": 486,
   "rank4-sum-field-mismatch": 313,
   "rank5-sum-field-mismatch": 205
  },
  "note": "Sum fields (rnk*SumWnAmt) disagree with count x amount in some rounds; recorded as flags only. No round is excluded for it."
 }
}
